Non-commitment in performance evaluation and the problem of information distortions

Auditing is modeled in a sequential game without commitment. The manager must decide whether and where to audit a worker's output, taking into account all interim information he has obtained. The worker will work just hard enough (and show it) to divert the manager from making an audit or cover up, withholding information about his work to make an audit more difficult. This usually raises the costs of setting work incentives, so incentives are softened, sometimes drastically. Moreover, when a worker's on-the-job information is valuable for entrepreneurial decisions, work incentives must be softened to improve the internal flow of information.     

Financial crisis and persistence: evidence from sticky expectations consumption growth model

We estimate the degree of stickiness in aggregate consumption growth for the U.S. considering the effects of the Great Recession. The behavior of stickiness estimate in the crisis is somewhat as the U-shaped pattern. Our findings imply that during the crisis consumers’ attentiveness to aggregate information has slightly increased, thereby reducing the persistence of aggregate consumption growth. However, the reduction in persistence is transitory. Since 1980, the U.S. faced five recessions and in most of them the degree of stickiness declined, albeit temporarily.     

Revisiting Savage in a conditional world

Summary. I present an axiomatization of subjective expected utility and Bayesian updating in a conditional decision problem. This result improves our understanding of the Bayesian standard from two perspectives: 1) it uses a set of axioms which are weak and intuitive; 2) it provides a formal proof to results on the relation between dynamic consistency, expected utility and Bayesian updating which have never been explicitly proved in a fully subjective framework. Received: December 1, 2000; revised version: February 26, 2001     

论理性预期理论的合理性

作对理性预期理论进行了较全面的分析，指出这一假说理论上的合理性。有效市场理论及国外一些国家在治理通货膨胀方面的实践均是理性预期理论与实践较完善的结合。作把理性预期理论当作一种工具，尝度着用这一理论对我国经济现状进行了分析，同时给出了政策性的建设。     

Cultural vs. operational market orientation and objective vs. subjective performance: Perspective of production and operations

The relationship between market orientation and organizational performance has been the focus of many studies for the last few years. The conclusions reported are very diverse and even contradictory. This ambiguity is reinforced to some extent by the high degree of methodological heterogeneity in the definition and measure of market orientation and organizational performance and the empirical formalization of the relationship between both concepts. This study tackles this question by comparing different methodological approaches. Three key aspects are considered: (1) cultural and operational approaches for measuring market orientation; (2) objective and subjective measures of performance; and (3) the source of information in the organization, specifically the perspective of production and operations. The results obtained from a sample of Spanish industrial firms show a stronger positive relationship for operational market orientation and subjective performance. Moreover, the adoption of ‘operational recipes’ of market orientation by the production and operations function seems to improve organizational performance regardless of the existence of any cultural support for market orientation.     

Measuring Inflation Expectations Uncertainty Using High‐Frequency Data

Inflation expectations play a key role in determining future economic outcomes. The associated uncertainty provides a direct gauge of how well‐anchored the inflation expectations are. We construct a model‐based measure of inflation expectations uncertainty by augmenting a standard unobserved components model of inflation with information from noisy and possibly biased measures of inflation expectations obtained from financial markets. This new model‐based measure of inflation expectations uncertainty is more accurately estimated and can provide valuable information for policymakers. Using U.S. data, we find significant changes in inflation expectations uncertainty during the Great Recession.     

Using Market Expectations to Test for Speculative Bubbles in the Crude Oil Market

The wide fluctuations of oil prices from 2003 to 2008 have attracted the interest of academics and policymakers. A popular view is that these fluctuations were caused by speculative bubbles due to the increased financialization of oil futures markets. This hypothesis, however, is difficult to examine since the fundamental price of oil is unobservable and, therefore, econometric evidence in favor of bubbles may actually be due to misspecified market fundamentals. In this paper, we extend two recently proposed methodologies for bubble detection that alleviate this problem by using market expectations of future prices. Both methodologies provide no evidence of speculative bubbles.     

“With a young spirit,we will be young forever”: Exploring the links between tourism and ageing well in contemporary China

This research explores the entangled relationships between tourism, ageing and well-being in later life. We challenge the universal connotations of old age and “ageing well” and see their relationships with tourism as dynamic processes, in which older people are continuously producing different meanings and fulfilling personal quests over life courses. Using the contextualist and temporal lens, four scenarios of the evolving relationships between tourism and ageing well were identified from the lived experiences and travel histories of 48 Chinese senior travelers. The results demonstrate that how tourism affects ageing well are shaped by senior travellers' early life and travel experiences, the personalised conceptions attached to tourism and well-being, which are indeed complex responses to their personal, social and cultural contexts. This research unveils vivid pictures of Chinese older adults’ leisure lives, and highlights the urgency to develop relevant tourism policies and marketing strategies to cater for their changing needs.     

Hospitality and tourism student and alumni perspectives: promotion expectations,academic and experience adjustments,and career growth

Preparing qualified graduates for the tourism and hospitality industry who will stay and achieve promotional success is paramount. The objectives of this research project were to determine promotional advancement expectations and strategies to improve promotional opportunities. Two separate questionnaires, with both open and close-ended questions, were sent to upper classmen/women in hospitality and tourism programs and alumni of the same programs. In total, 717 (409 students and 308 alumni) completed the questionnaires. Chi-square tests were run to determine differences between student and alumni responses. To assist in analysis of open-ended responses, Atlas.ti was used. There was a statistically significant difference between students and alumni responses in regards to promotional expectations; students expected it to take a significantly longer time to receive a promotion to supervisor or manager than alumni. Overall, students and alumni indicated strategies such as more real-world-focused courses with hands-on experiences.     

Demand for,and impediments to,the disclosure of information about climate change-related corporate governance practices

Based on a survey of climate change experts in different stakeholder groups and interviews with corporate climate change managers, this study provides insights into the gap between what information stakeholders expect, and what Australian corporations disclose. This paper focuses on annual reports and sustainability reports with specific reference to the disclosure of climate change-related corporate governance practices. The findings culminate in the refinement of a best practice index for the disclosure of climate change-related corporate governance practises. Interview results indicate that the low levels of disclosures made by Australian companies may be due to a number of factors. A lack of proactive stakeholder engagement and an apparent preoccupation with financial performance and advancing shareholders interest, coupled with a failure by managers to accept accountability, seems to go a long way to explaining low levels of disclosure.